1.9.1 Intuition
Imagine waking up one morning feeling unwell. As you begin to search the internet to identify the potential cause, you stumble upon a serious ailment, which we'll call “Hypoillness”. Upon reading through the list of symptoms, you discover that you share a striking similarity with the symptoms, approximately 90%. Naturally, this prompts a crucial question: given the high similarity in symptoms, what is the probability that you actually have Hypoillness? However, before assuming a 90% probability of having Hypoillness and panicking, will you try to find the answers to the following questions:
- How prevalent is Hypoillness? In other words, what percentage of the population is affected by this ailment?
- How common are the symptoms you are currently experiencing? i.e., What is the overall percentage of individuals who exhibit these symptoms, whether due to Hypoillness or another cause?
Suppose the…